Rastall's Rambling: Bucks at Crossroads After Latest Playoff Flameout

The cosmic toll the Milwaukee Bucks have needed to pay in return for that glorious run to a championship in 2021 is almost hard to calculate.

When the Bucks tried to defend their title in 2022, Khris Middleton slipped on a wet spot during their first-round series against the Chicago Bulls and missed the rest of the playoffs with an MCL sprain. Middleton’s offensive punch was sorely missed in a seven-game loss to the Boston Celtics in the second round, and Middleton’s health was constantly an issue and a talking point during his final two-plus years as a Buck.

The Bucks posted the best record in the NBA during the 2022-23 season but flamed out in the first round against the Miami Heat, where Giannis Antetokounmpo was injured and Jrue Holiday was unable to step up into the No. 2 role effectively.

Mike Budenholzer was fired. Adrian Griffin was hired. Damian Lillard was acquired. Giannis signed a new supermax extension. Adrian Griffin was fired midway through the season after losing the locker room. Doc Rivers was inexplicably hired. Giannis was injured before the 2024 playoffs and the Bucks were bounced by the Indiana Pacers in six games.

The Bucks looked too flawed to be a genuine championship contender this season, but the hope was that we could at least finally see the Giannis-Dame duo in a playoff setting for the first time.

A blood clot in Lillard’s right calf in late March threatened to eliminate that possibility, but he shockingly made it back for Game 2 of Milwaukee’s first-round series against the Pacers. As it turned out, the Bucks would get only two full playoff games of the Giannis-Dame pairing.

After an electric Game 3 win at home to cut the series deficit to 2-1, Lillard suffered a torn Achilles tendon. The Bucks lost that game and then ended the series with a total debacle, squandering a seven-point lead with 40 seconds left in overtime to lose Game 5 in a turnover-laden meltdown.

Just like that, the Bucks were tossed straight into an offseason filled with more uncertainty than any of the Giannis era.

Even before the Lillard injury, the Bucks were going to find themselves in a precarious position with few tradable assets and limited cap flexibility. Trading Lillard would’ve given them a little bit of a return to try and retool with, but any possibility of that is now out the window. 

Lillard will be out most or all of next season and he may never be the same player on the basketball court again. With Lillard under contract for two more years and with few ways to dramatically improve the roster, it’s almost impossible to imagine the Bucks being a championship contender for at least the next two seasons.

So, the franchise-altering question for the Bucks is now this: Does Giannis want to stick around in Milwaukee given the dire state of affairs?

There has been plenty of speculation over the years about the possibility of Giannis leaving Milwaukee from the segment of NBA fans whose main source of excitement in the sport is blockbuster trades and a collection of national talking heads who seem hostile to superstars in small markets. But this honestly feels like the first time it’s not wishcasting on their part.

I personally don’t buy that the Bucks will trade Giannis without him requesting one, even if they could get an insane haul of players and picks in return. Giannis is too important to the franchise and the risk of alienating a large portion of the fanbase could have too big an impact on the ownership group’s bottom line.

However, it’s not hard to imagine Giannis wanting out to a better situation to contend for championships. If he does request a trade, the team should obviously honor it. He’s done so much for the Bucks that he’s earned full cooperation on his future given where things are at with the team’s roster.

Selfishly, I hope he decides to stick it out. Every game that Giannis suits up in a Bucks uniform is a treat. The connection Giannis has with Milwaukee, the Bucks and their fans is unlike almost any else in sports, and I don’t want to fathom him taking the court for any other team during his career.

But whether Giannis stays in Milwaukee or not, it does feel like an era is ending. It could be the end of Giannis as a Buck. Or even if he stays, it’s functionally the end of the window of championship contention that opened with the hiring of Budenholzer and the signing of Brook Lopez in 2019.

In any event, it makes for an uncomfortable offseason ahead.